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Bright Outlooks
: China Adoption Referral Forecasts
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In 2005, American families adopted 7906 children from China. The length of time that a family waited for a match (or referral) was consistently 6 months. However, in 2006 the number of international applicants into China's International adoption program has risen significantly and according to some sources has more than doubled. As a result, wait times are rising dramatically and many families are left to guess at when they may receive their referral. These families have very little information to go on. Many agencies do not attempt to provide forecasts or insights into waiting time predictions. However, there is some comfort in the referral process. Families are referred children in order of their receipt of their dossiers. Once dossiers are received and Logged-In a LID date is assigned to the families. Once a month, referrals are given for a certain number of log-in dates. For example, at the end of May, referrals were given to families with LID's between 6/7/2005 and 6/15/2005. At the end of June, referrals will be given to families with LID's between 6/16/2005 and ???. The only information that families have is the knowledge of their own LID date. By watching the CCAA website, families can learn about the dates for a current referral cycle.
Click here to check out our referral
calculator!!!
As the wait has doubled in the past 6 months, there is quite a bit of anxiety for those in the program. There are rumors that the wait could reach 2 years and one particular rumor site is recording up to 40,000 hits per day from families seeking to gain any insight on what may happen next. This is where this site comes into play. This site tries to use very simple math models to predict what will happen next. We then blend these math models in with predictions from people who are in the program to provide a forecast of LID dates for near term referral groups. We also provide longer term forecasts as well. In reviewing our results, please take them with a grain of salt. One of the first rules of forecasting is that "Forecasts are always wrong, but necessary". It is our sincere goal of the project to create some models that will shed a little bit of light on the current situation as well as provide some simple tools to families who are waiting (check out your own forecast calculator!). This site is run by a mother of truly amazing children who recently completed an adoption from China. Though the wait is now over, she is sincerely interested in what will happen next as she intends to join this very long line one more time. |
