Bright Outlooks : China Adoption Referral Forecasts
   -- Caution : "All models are wrong, some are useful" (Box)

 

 

  Home

  Calculator

  Charts

  Methods

  About Us

 

 

  Ralph SterlingView by DTC Year  View by Referral Year  Last Decade
 

This first chart shows the increase of waiting times for those who submitted their Dossiers To China (DTC) in 2005 versus those submitted in 2004.  In 2004, the average waiting time was fairly consistent at  191.4 days.  However, in 2005 the distribution of waiting times is wider and has an average of 330 days.    The next tab ("View by Referral Year") has a different view of this chart that breaks the waiting time by referral year.

The next chart (below) is a direct reproduction of the one of the charts from Ralph Sterling's website.  However, we have increased the size of the graph so that it is a bit easier to read.   The trends are readily apparent here, and the average at the beginning of 2004 was about 200 days vs. the current average of over 500 days.

 

We wanted to take the next step of analyzing this chart by year.  The graph below is a different version of the above chart in which the DTC year is color coded. 

 

Finally, this is yet another version of the graph, but we have now color coded it by the year in which referrals were received.  Here we can see a few different things:

People who received their referrals in 2004 (black dots) actually were seeing a decrease in waiting times that originally started around 200 and went to approximately 175 days (shown by black line)

The increase in waiting times began to rise in 2005 as is shown by the red line.  The rate of increase was not as rapid and increased from about 175 days to 230 days. 

For those who received their referrals in 2006 (green), the wait increased sharply (don't really need a graph to tell you this if you are in the process though!).  However, we can see that it is increasing from about 230 days to about 450 days on average.

Unfortunately, the rate of increase remains sharp for those receiving their referrals in 2007.