Bright Outlooks : China Adoption Referral Forecasts
   -- Caution : "All models are wrong, some are useful" (Box)

 

 

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  Ralph SterlingView by DTC Year  View by Referral Year  Last Decade
 

The charts on this tab are very similar in content to those in the previous tab ("View by DTC Year").  However, we have changed the X-axis from DTC to Referral for a slightly different look at things.

This first chart shows the increase of waiting times for those who received their referrals in 2005 and 2006.  To make this chart a bit more clear, we are just showing the distributional fits for this chart which show an average waiting time of 180 days (from DTC to referral) for those who received their referrals in 2004, 208.7 days for those who received their referrals in 2005, 346 for those in 2006, and 526 for those receiving their referrals in 2007. 

 

This next chart is a direct reproduction of one of the graphs from Ralph Stirling's website.  However, we have increased the size of the graph so that it is a bit easier to read.   The trends are readily observable here as the waiting time was about  200 days in June of 2005, it is now 425 days.

 

We wanted to take the next step of analyzing this chart by year.  The graph below is a different version of the above chart in which the DTC year is color coded. 

 

Finally, this is yet another version of the graph, but we have now color coded it by the year in which referrals were received.