Bright Outlooks : China Adoption Referral Forecasts
   -- Caution : "All models are wrong, some are useful" (Box)

 

 

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  Ralph StirlingView by DTC Year  View by Referral Year  Last Decade
 

The charts below uses the data from Ralph Stirling's database and shows the history of waiting times from DTC to referral from 1996 - 2006.

This first graph shows the data colored by referral year. 

 

This next chart shows the moving average.  To make the chart a bit more clear, we have reduced the data so that only one point appears for each day (this is the average waiting time for that DTC day.  This step was necessary to reduce the clutter of the chart and make the average line more visible for this large dataset.

 

For a historical viewpoint, here are a few key dates for interpretation:
 

Year

Event (Source: http://www.familyhelper.net/news/china.html)

1996

CCAA became China’s central authority for international adoption (Jun)

1998

Amendments to adoption law were approved (Nov)

2001

Quota system implemented to help regulate the rate of applications (Dec)

2002

Slowdown continues due to growing popularity of China’s program

2002

Quota lifted after goal of controlling “excessive growth” realized (Nov)

2003

First case of SARS noted in Toronto (Feb).  China introduces six-week suspension of file processing & referrals (May 15 – Jun 24)

2005

Adoptions temporarily halted from Hunan province following baby-trafficking investigations (Nov)

2006

Convictions of orphanage director from Hunan province and eight others. (Feb)

2006

Additional financial and medical restrictions placed upon potential adoptive families (May)