Bright Outlooks : China Adoption Referral Forecasts
   -- Caution : "All models are wrong, some are useful" (Box)

 

 

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FOI Information Update -- April 2008

Congratulations to all families who received referrals this month.  We have updated the Regression and Smoothing models to incorporate the latest data.  We'll update Your Guess soon once we have a few more data points!

When we stated this site, we put in a FOI (freedom of information) request to obtain detailed information on the number of I-171 application acceptances for China by month.  We had hoped to use this information for predictive purposes (i.e. instead of the polls we could have used known data that is less subject to bias / reporting error).

This month we finally received a reply (almost two years later).  It was one sheet of paper which simply listed the same statistics that are already online (number of children adopted during 2005, 2006, and 2007).  We were stunned as this clearly was not what we requested and after two years we expected more.

Given that our models are working well, we are not going to pursue this route further.