Bright Outlooks : China Adoption Referral Forecasts
   -- Caution : "All models are wrong, some are useful" (Box)

 

 

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One common way to do forecasting is to fit a straight line through the data so that it provides the best "fit" or the minimum amount of error between the points and the line.  This is called linear regression and it assumes that all data is equal, so recent data has the same weight as older data.

CAUTION: Because this methodology uses data from full months of referrals it is optimistic...and has an average error of almost 20 days.