We came up with the idea for YourGuess from research that shows that the collective estimates of people can often be used to predict the future.  This is the basis for sites such as Intrade, which turned out to be more accurate than any public opinion poll for the last presidential election (see link). 

So, you will likely be our best predictor!!!! Please be sure to visit the calculator to put in your estimates of what will happen next! 

October Projections (coming soon!)

Here are the old projections from September.... new projections will be posted as soon as enough data is available.

Here's how we created the graph. 

First, imagine that we ordered the data from the most pessimistic to the most optimistic and that we have 100 data points.  We exclude the 10 most pessimistic and 10 most optimistic estimates (the lower 10% and upper 10% of the data).

Then, we colored the next most outer range red (the next 15 pessimistic points and next 15 optimistic points) as these are getting close to the outside of what most people expect which is within the yellow region of the graph.  The black bar indicates the middle (median) value that was reported.