Congratulations to all families receiving referrals through 2/15/2006!  Please be sure to keep entering your guesses in the referral calculator.. you all are very good predictors!!! (you guessed 2/16)

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Welcome to the Bright Outlooks website.  This website is the product of a group of faculty from a major university that are working to build mathematical models to help adoptive families from China better understand what may happen next.

Click here to check out the referral calculator!!!   

Below is a summary our short range projections  (click here for long range projections): 

Note: the referral rate has rebounded since the January referrals, so no special adjustments were made. 

Accuracy is measured by the average error over six months (actual - predicted). 

Note: Your Guess perfectly predicted the referral cut several times.  Please keep entering your options in the referral calculator to help those who are in process.
 

Six Month Projections:

Using the RegPes Method, here is a long range (6 month) projection.  The and yellow bars indicate uncertainty around the cutoff date.

We are always open to suggestions, so please feel free to contact us at: feedback@brightoutlooks.com

Note: now that we have been up awhile we get tons of junk mail.  Therefore, please put the word adoption in the header so we can filter it out from the 100's of junk messages that arrive daily.  Thanks!

Last Update10/1/08